Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.003003 0.003303 0.003622 0.003988 0.004397 0.004840 0.005357
2026-02-08 0.002468 0.002882 0.003355 0.003937 0.004636 0.005454 0.006487
2026-02-15 0.002133 0.002593 0.003142 0.003851 0.004748 0.005854 0.007332
2026-02-22 0.001937 0.002432 0.003046 0.003870 0.004958 0.006359 0.008325
2026-03-01 0.001820 0.002350 0.003030 0.003974 0.005269 0.007005 0.009549
2026-03-08 0.001660 0.002195 0.002899 0.003907 0.005333 0.007313 0.010326
2026-03-15 0.001522 0.002056 0.002775 0.003831 0.005370 0.007574 0.011047
2026-03-22 0.001421 0.001956 0.002695 0.003806 0.005471 0.007927 0.011928
2026-03-29 0.001353 0.001897 0.002664 0.003848 0.005669 0.008433 0.013086
2026-04-05 0.001263 0.001801 0.002573 0.003788 0.005703 0.008687 0.013860
2026-04-12 0.001189 0.001721 0.002499 0.003749 0.005762 0.008979 0.014719
2026-04-19 0.001118 0.001642 0.002420 0.003695 0.005791 0.009221 0.015508
2026-04-26 0.001066 0.001589 0.002382 0.003707 0.005939 0.009687 0.016772
2026-05-03 0.001003 0.001517 0.002310 0.003660 0.005985 0.009988 0.017779
2026-05-10 0.000939 0.001439 0.002223 0.003581 0.005968 0.010174 0.018584
2026-05-17 0.000901 0.001400 0.002195 0.003598 0.006119 0.010671 0.020043
2026-05-24 0.000881 0.001389 0.002212 0.003694 0.006417 0.011464 0.022184
2026-05-31 0.000833 0.001329 0.002143 0.003632 0.006420 0.011696 0.023195
2026-06-07 0.000788 0.001270 0.002072 0.003562 0.006401 0.011884 0.024129
2026-06-14 0.000754 0.001229 0.002029 0.003540 0.006469 0.012248 0.025491
2026-06-21 0.000732 0.001207 0.002020 0.003578 0.006659 0.012874 0.027515
2026-06-28 0.000697 0.001161 0.001963 0.003523 0.006658 0.013104 0.028649
2026-07-05 0.000667 0.001122 0.001918 0.003487 0.006691 0.013407 0.029993